Tonight: New Jersey

Here is the first of my predictions for the big three races that I've been watching in the past couple of weeks...

The New Jersey Governor's Race: Despite the fluctuating polling that has been reported in recent days, I think that Democrat Jon Corzine will (just barely) win his battle against Republican Chris Christie.

It seems clear to me that both candidates have a large problem in the form of their high disapproval ratings. While this is a definite negative for both of them, it plays into Governor Corzine's hand because -- while people may not like Corzine, they are at least familiar with him. Christie has no such advantage in this manner. To most New Jersians, he is an unknown entity -- who has really low approval rating. My hunch is that Corzine will get re-elected not because he is a good leader, but simply because he is the incumbent candidate.

I think that Jon Corzine will win in New Jersey.

[editor's note: I must give an honorable mention to independent candidate Chris Daggett. The guy ran a smart, insurgent, third-party campaign -- and he deserves credit for that. If he would have had the kind of resources that Corzine has, the playing field might have been a bit more level.]

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Photo: Matthew Gilson

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